NLDS Game 3: Milwaukee Brewers At Atlanta Braves Odds, Picks And Prediction

The

Milwaukee Brewers visit Truist Park Monday for Game 3 of their best-of-five National League Division Series with the

Atlanta Braves. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the

Brewers vs. Braves

odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta evened the series Saturday with a 3-0 win in Game 2 as LHP

Max Fried pitched 6 scoreless innings, allowing zero walks and 3 hits with 9 strikeouts.

Series: Tied 1-1.

RHP 

Freddy Peralta is on the hill for the Brewers. He was 10-5 with a 2.81 ERA (144 1/3 IP, 45 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 through 27 regular-season starts and one relief outing.

  • Second-half: 3-2 with a 3.69 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.12 WHIP and 5.0 K/BB over 10 starts.
  • Peralta beat Atlanta 10-9 May 16 with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 8 K.
  • Road stats: 5-2 with a 2.70 ERA (60 IP, 18 ER), 1.07 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB across 12 starts.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster (55 PA): 2.71 FIP with a .156 batting average (BA), .251 wOBA, .282 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.7 K% and 86.0 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP 

Ian Anderson is Atlanta’s projected starter. He was 9-5 with a 3.58 ERA (128 1/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 over 24 starts.

  • Second-half: 4-0 with a 3.62 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.18 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB across six starts.
  • Picked up a 5-1 victory against Milwaukee May 15, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 4 K.
  • Home stats: 5-1 with a 3.52 ERA (61 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.13 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB across 11 starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster (21 PA): 4.00 FIP with a .063 BA, .208 wOBA, .183 xSLG, 19.0 K% and 84.0 mph EV.

Brewers at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Braves -117 (bet $117 to win $100)

  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+160) | Braves +1.5 (-200)

  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Brewers 7, Braves 3

Money line (ML)

BET the 

BREWERS (-103) for 1 unit to win Game 3 of the NLDS. Milwaukee has the second-best road winning percentage and has a much higher winning percentage against righty starters than Atlanta.

Furthermore, we have a “pros vs. joe’s” scenario in the betting market as 55% of the cash wagered is on the Brew Crew but nearly 60% of the bets placed are on the Braves, according to Pregame.com at the time of writing. Typically in sports betting, it’s wise to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

Peralta’s advanced pitching numbers against Atlanta and as a whole are much better than Anderson’s. He grades in the 88th percentile or better in EV, xSLG, expected wOBA, K%, hard-hit rate and whiff rate. While Anderson grades in the 55th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, xSLG, expected wOBA, K% and chase rate.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Brewers -1.5 (+160) since I like them outright, Milwaukee is 51-30 ATS on the road and Atlanta has the worst home cover rate at 28-52 ATS.

However, Peralta has looked a little shaky down the stretch. The Brewers went just 2-3 in his September starts and he had just four quality starts since the All-Star break.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the 

OVER 8.5 (+105) for a half unit because that’s where the presumed “sharp” money is while the public slightly prefers the Under. According to Pregame.com, more than three-fourths of the cash wagered is on the Under whereas just 51% of the bets placed are on the Over.

That said, there are too many pro-Under trends that we have to buck such as Milwaukee playing to the Under in its past six Division Series games, Atlanta playing to the Under in its past four Division Series games and the Under being 3-1-1 in the past five head-to-head meetings in Atlanta.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Source : https://sportsbookwire.usatoday.com/2021/10/11/nlds-game-3-milwaukee-brewers-at-atlanta-braves-odds-picks-and-prediction/

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